PhD Studentship - Dynamic Turbulence Modelling for Convective Storms

Convective storms remain notoriously difficult to predict because of their highly localised nature and dependence on interactions across a wide range of scales, from turbulent motions to the synoptic environment. Operational forecasting is therefore moving towards increasingly high-resolution models to better capture high-impact weather events. However, refining model resolution does not necessarily lead to an improvement in forecast skill, particularly at sub-kilometre resolutions where turbulent motions are only partially resolved. This project will investigate how the representation of unresolved turbulence affects convective-scale simulations and develop an adaptive turbulence parametrisation that can improve convective weather forecasting. At these so-called grey-zone resolutions, the assumptions underlying conventional parametrisations break down, requiring a fundamental rethinking of how turbulent processes are represented. The researcher will develop and test a novel approach originating from computational fluid dynamics, in which turbulence closure parameters are dynamically diagnosed from the evolving flow rather than prescribed beforehand. The scheme will be implemented in Met Office modelling systems and tested using high-resolution simulations simulations of reference shallow and deep convection case studies and observational data. They will be encouraged to take increasing ownership of the project and its scientific direction. Depending on their interests, they may explore physical interpretation, develop new diagnostics, or investigate data-driven approaches to turbulence closure. This can lead to new research questions, supporting progression towards independent research. Training will include atmospheric science, fluid dynamics and numerical modelling, alongside substantial practical experience in High Performance Computing, scientific programming, model development, data analysis, visualisation and scientific writing. The project forms part of an established partnership with the Met Office to develop turbulence parametrisations for the next-generation forecasting systems. The researcher will spend time at the Met Office, working directly with model developers, participate in joint project meetings and have opportunities to shape future developments in weather prediction systems. Funding For eligible students the studentship will cover home tuition fees plus an annual tax-free stipend.