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There’s a familiar feeling for any Super Smash Bros player: your stocks are low and your damage is high, even against a weaker opponent, so now you have to actually play to win. You can’t afford another hit. You’re going for the jugular.
In the past week, Anthropic’s 2x uplift results were all over Twitter, making some people physically ill.
People with long timelines are now realizing that the uplift Anthropic employees get from AI is real, which would have some pretty wild implications for when we’d get recursive self-improvement.
People are starting to feel like it’s the endgame, “the board is set”.
I do agree with everyone else that it’s starting to look like we’re in the endgame.
The companies will keep on accumulating more and more power, through smarter AI models, more compute, and more talent.
But the fight is not yet over:
“We have very little time to stop full recursive self improvement
But ASI hasn't taken over yet
If we all work really hard we might still have a chance
But this means that every single person who is aware of what is going on must be *actually trying*
Like "we're all gonna die if we don't get our shit together so let's do everything we possibly can to stop this" type of trying”
But what would actually trying look like?
Actually TryingThere are a couple of heuristics for thinking about what “actually trying” means.
Famously, Nick Cammarata tweeted:
i hate how well asking myself “if i had 10x the agency i have what would i do” works
My own version goes:
Imagine being in a world where we don't make it. One day, humanity goes extinct from building superintelligence.
Then, someone gives you the option to come back to this date, and try again.
What would you do differently?
Like, imagine the version of you that just died from the bad worlds we wanted to avoid. And was given the chance to try again.
Maybe it was the first time you died. Or the 100th.
But this time, some oracle comes to you when you wake up and tells you that for some reason