The Midterms and AI Development

The midterm elections have resulted in a crushing defeat for the Republican Party and one of the most impressive and resounding Democratic party victories in recent memory. I suspect that both parties will spend the coming weeks analyzing and processing the results and what they mean for American politics. The consequences of this election will likely change the political landscape in fundamental ways both in the near-term (over the next two years), and in the lead up to the 2028 election. I wanted to spend some time analyzing the political ramifications of this shift, especially in as far as it affects the politics of AI development. If you disagree with any of my statements please feel free to leave a comment. I am by no means a political analyst and may have made mistakes. All criticism is welcome! Why this matters?Many of those closely following AI development believe that we are rapidly approaching the critical milestone of recursive self-improvement (when AIs can fully automate most or all of AI R&D potentially triggering a rapid self reinforcing explosion in AI capabilities). If these forecasts are correct, then the exact political situation in the United States (where much of the world's frontier AI research is concentrated) becomes of paramount importance. What Happened?The midterm elections in the United States take place two years into a president's 4 year term with all 435 members of the House of Representatives up for election (218 needed for a majority) along with a third of the Senate (35 out of 100 Senators stand for elections, 51 needed for a majority). In addition, the midterms involve voting for State level and Local officials (governors, state legislative bodies, etc.). Generally, the midterms are viewed as a referendum on how voters feel about the current ruling party/administration (most voters cast their ballot for the party they like rather than evaluating candidates individually), and usually result in the ruling party losing seats. Yes