Description du poste
We want to get this post out quickly given the urgency of the topic. It’s possible that there are some errors in the modeling, but we think it’s very unlikely that they undermine the high level conclusions. We would love to be corrected on any mistakes we made.
METR recently estimated that Anthropic is now making AI progress about twice as fast as its historical rate (they would not be surprised by anything from 1.3x to 3x), and guessed that “perhaps ≈80%” of the current acceleration is due to AI. If they’re right, that implies an AI-driven acceleration that is 5 months ahead of the AI 2027 scenario.
This level of acceleration due to AI is very unexpected. Previously, Daniel, the most bullish of us, assigned a 50% chance of Superhuman AI Researcher (SAR)[1] before 2029. SAR is roughly the point at which a company would rather fire all their human researchers and rely solely on automated AI researchers than have a team of the best human researchers in the world with no AIs.[2]
Now, all of us forecast that Superhuman AI Researcher (SAR) will likely arrive at some point in 2027 (assuming no substantial deliberate slowdown).[3]We also predict a 35-65% chance that Top-Expert-Dominating AI (TED-AI), AIs that can automate all white-collar work, will arrive before 2028. While there were many factors and sources of evidence that influenced us, the single biggest source was the METR report.[4].
If SAR is coming in 2027, it is incredibly urgent to pause or substantially ‘pace’ frontier AI development, with the ideal being an industry-wide pause followed by an international agreement. Companies are not on track to align a SAR, and using a misaligned SAR to do recursive self-improvement (RSI) will put us in an extremely bad position. Additionally, if we train SAR in the near future, China will probably be able to steal the training recipe and maybe even the model weights (more).[5]
Timelines/Takeoff Update SummaryWe estimate that METR’s report implies a 1.7x AI-attributable acce