Description du poste
Summary: The actions taken this decade may be exceptionally important for the future of civilization, but we should be unusually hesitant to proclaim that any course of action is “best.” Still, we should think carefully about what we should do.
This post was written as part of an introduction to a new reading group I’m starting called “Doing Good in the Age of AGI.” If you want to follow along, the full curriculum can be found here.
Uncertain in the best of timesDo you think freezing rent prices would be good for the economic middle class? How confident are you?
You might have an answer that you like, but you’re probably not that confident in it. Perhaps you haven’t formally studied economics, but maybe you’ve had some passing interest in the topic. Ever since Mamdani’s mayoral campaign became a talking point across the country, or since his rent freeze passed in June of 2026, discussion of this economic policy has shifted back into the public spotlight. Maybe you’ve tried to read the arguments on both sides, and you’ve noticed that there’s a lot to read. As it turns out, people are opinionated enough that 82% of renters and homebuyers believe there should be caps on rent increases, but a survey of the top economists shows that only 2%[1] think that rent caps would make the middle class substantially better off over the course of a decade (with some of the disagreement coming from whether or not a benefit would be “substantial”). And within this gap between public sentiment and expert opinion, there is so much discourse and research. The American Economics Association has 23,000 members, about half of which are academics, and a single meta-analysis on rent control reviews over 200 papers.
A lot of thinking has gone into finding the truth about this specific question. You might believe that this puts you in a good position to make claims about the effects of rent control. But even if you think expert consensus is pretty unified and easy to defer to, you might fail